Steven Levitt has been looking at some classic business books lately. In his post on the Feakonomics blog yesterday, Levitt discussed the fact that the companies held up as models in two classic books, Good to Great and In Search of Excellence, have, as a group, underperformed the market since the books were published. Most strikingly, Fannie Mae, one of the Good to Great companies, has lost over 80% of its value since the book was published and looks like it may need a government bail-out.
What does that say about the value of the advice in these books? Here’s what Levitt concludes:
These business books are mostly backward-looking: what have companies done that has made them successful? The future is always hard to predict, and understanding the past is valuable; on the other hand, the implicit message of these business books is that the principles that these companies use not only have made them good in the past, but position them for continued success.
Business would be easier with a nice clear set of rules: just do these ten things and success is guaranteed. But markets change, technology changes, the economy changes–everything changes every day. That makes it pretty hard to find rules that work all the time under all circumstances.
That doesn’t mean that the guidance offered by a book like Good to Great is without value. If we don’t learn from experience, we don’t learn at all. And if we only learn from our own direct experience, there is an awful lot we’ll never know.
The challenge, of course, is to take valuable lessons from past experiences–those of others as well as our own–and apply them thoughtfully to the future.
In other words, lessons from experience may give us guidelines for future action. They don’t provide clear rules. If they did, the only difficult thing about running a successful business would be deciding which books to read.

